Playoff prospects for the 4 local teams
We’ve hit the point of the football season where playoff races are beginning to take shape.
Key word there: Beginning.
With three games left in the regular season, some teams - like Metro Christian Academy - have essentially wrapped up district championships, but the playoff waters below them are a bit more muddied.
Very muddy, in fact. There’s a lot of movement that can take place over these final three weeks as teams try to secure playoff spots, jockey for a home playoff game and maybe even win a district title.
Will Crescent and Hennessey maintain their current pace?
Will Kingfisher and Cashion make their way in?
Only time - and results will truly tell, but here is a convoluted glimpse at what lies ahead.
Use the district standings above for some reference, but also get your thinking caps on.
There are a lot of “what ifs” that follow:
District 3A-1
Metro Christian’s win last week at Kingfisher basically gave the Patriots the district title. It will no doubt lock it up this week if - as expected - its beats Anadarko at home.
Assuming that happens, Metro could still lose one of its last two games and still win the district since it already has a win over Perkins-Tryon.
Perkins-Tryon is likely to finish second in the district as it already has wins over KHS and Anadarko.
Technically, Kingfisher is in a three-way tie for fourth. It plays the other two teams it’s currently tied with in the next two games.
That begins Friday with an important trip to Mc-Loud.
A win over the Redskins will be a massive step in locking up a 23rd consecutive trip to the playoffs. What would a loss mean? It means the Jackets would have to win their final two games, then the final two playoff spots in the district most likely would come down to Anadarko, McLoud and KHS and district points would be brought into play.
It gets dicey.
Simply put, a win this week for KHS isn’t absolutely necessary, but it absolutely would make life easier.
What about playoff matchups?
District 3A-1 matches up with 3A-2 for the first round of the playoffs.
The district champ from one plays the fourth seed from the other. The runner- up from one hosts the No. 3 seed from the other.
Soooo…. If Kingfisher wins out (at McLoud, home with North Rock Creek, at Anadarko), it’s going to take third in the district.
That means the Jackets would travel to the district runner-up for 3A-2.
Who’s that going to be? Your guess is as good as mine.
Six of the eight teams in the district still have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
One would think Heritage Hall is the betting favorite to win the district and I’d certainly make that bet. However, the Chargers still host Plainview (3-1) before traveling to Marlow (3-1) and Sulphur (2-2) to close the season. Not easy places to win.
Plainview has to play at Heritage Hall this week, then finish with Marlow and Sulphur.
The head scratcher came last week when the Indians were defeated by Pauls Valley (2-2), which also beat Sulphur the week before, but has a 15-point loss to Marlow.
Marlow was beaten by 20 points by Lone Grove (2-2), which also beat Sulphur, but still has to play Pauls Valley.
Confused yet? Let’s just say these last three weeks are needed as Heritage Hall, Plainview, Marlow and Sulphur take on each other and the Week 10 matchup between Lone Grove and Pauls Valley is now – low-key – an important game.
That’s the long way of saying, there’s no telling how the districts are going to line up yet for that first round.
District 2A-1
Hennessey’s in good shape.
The Eagles have won the games they’ve needed to at this point to put them in position to make a run at the playoffs over the final three weeks.
Who knows? Had Titan Hix not been injured in the third quarter of the loss at OCS in Week 4, the Eagles might have held onto their lead and could be undefeated in district games.
That said, each of the next three games is big for Hennessey, especially this week (vs. Alva) and Week 10 (at Newkirk).
The Millwood game in between will be a tough one to win.
Here are some scenarios. First off, Millwood and OCS are almost assuredly going to finish champ and runner-up (in some order).
That said… IF Hennessey goes 2-1 with wins over Alva and Newkirk, the Eagles will be third in the district.
IF Hennessey goes 0-3 over the final three weeks and all other games play out like other results would lead us to believe, the Eagles will miss the playoffs.
Newkirk would take third in the district and Alva fourth since the Tigers have the head-to-head win over the Goldbugs.
IF Hennessey goes 1-2 and beats Alva, the Eagles would be fourth in the district and Newkirk third.
IF Hennessey goes 1-2 and beats Newkirk, then you’re looking at a threeway tie between HHS, Newkirk and Alva for two spots. District points then decide those spots since they all three would have beaten each other.
Now, there’s an outside chance Perry throws a wrench in all of that. Both Alva and Newkirk still have to play the Maroons and while the record doesn’t suggest it, Perry can be scary.
If the Maroons knock off one (or both) of those teams, Hennessey’s chances increase.
District A-3
This one’s tough.
First of all, no, I didn’t leave off some teams. District A-3 currently is a six-team district, meaning teams only play five games “that matter” and 2/3 of the district will make the playoffs.
Chances are we know who those four teams will be: Crescent, Christian Heritage, Minco and Cashion.
Hinton can work itself in there, especially if it can find a way to beat Cashion, but it will be tough.
Locally, let’s start with Crescent.
The Tigers are in. Even if they lose their next two district games, they’ve done enough to this point to make their way in.
That said, they can also work their way out of one of the top two spots, which, as we know, get to host in the first round.
The Tigers finish up their district slate at home against Minco in Week 9 and then at Cashion in Week 10.
Minco’s a team that could still very well win the district…the Bulldogs will be a tough team to beat.
Cashion is a team Crescent’s defeated just once since Cashion made the move to 11-man more than a dozen years ago. So while a lot of the work is done, there’s still a lot left for the Tigers.
Christian Heritage currently sits behind Crescent as the Tigers beat CHA a few weeks ago.
The Crusaders will wrap up their district slate this week at Watonga, a team yet to win a district game. In all likelihood, CHA ends up 4-1 in the district.
Minco hosts Hinton and goes to Crescent. The Bulldogs have a shot at being 4-1 as well, but will have to find a way to win two physical games in the process.
If Minco beats Crescent and the Tigers beat Cashion, you’re looking at a threeway tie at the top. That means district points.
But Crescent can also finish third or fourth.
The main thing is, the Tigers are in.
That’s not the case - at least not yet - for Cashion.
The two-time reigning state champs are going to have to battle to make the playoffs.
After hosting Woodward in a non-district game this week, the Wildcats finish up at Hinton and at home against Crescent.
If they beat Hinton, a team that played them as tough as anyone a year ago, they’re all but in.
If they lose? It’s tough to see a scenario where they make it in, even if they beat Crescent the next week.
So circle Oct. 28 on your calendar. It’s a big one for Cashion.